7 October 2016

Security Trends South Asia » Myanmar » Myanmar – Stability Projections and Trends


Myanmar – Stability Projections and Trends [1]

Political

National League for Democracy (NLD) Government formation and functioning– Positive

Aung Suu Kyi – Role in Government – Positive

Post elections political stability - Positive.

Security

Myanmar Army’s acceptance of rise of the NLD and accommodation – Positive in Short Term.

Effective implementation of Cease Fire Agreements with 8 groups on 15 October - Positive

Conduct of 21st Century Panglong Conference - Positive

Continued Negotiations with other groups – Uncertain.

Clashes Ethnic Groups and Myanmar Army – Negative.

Geo Political/Regional

Balancing influence of global and regional states – Positive.

Economic

GDP Growth – Positive

[Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise]

2015 2016 2017 2018

6.5 7.8 8.5 8.5

8.5 8.2 8.0 [Estimates of World Bank in June 2015]

[Extracts of World Bank Report of January 2016 [Estimates as per World Bank Report GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS Chapter 2.5 JANUARY 2016]

As per the Asian Development Bank Outlook for 2016, despite significant economic reform since 2011, the new government faces daunting challenges. One is to maintain stability on the macroeconomic front and in regions affected by conflict. Another is to address deficits in infrastructure and in human resources and capacity that constrain social and economic development. A third challenge is to maintain and advance progress on reform to improve governance and strengthen public sector management, private sector development, and regional cooperation and integration. Combatting poverty and child malnutrition remain high priorities, and anecdotal evidence suggests that income inequality is worsening. The economy is narrowly based, with growth depending on natural resource exports, construction, and tourism. Intensified efforts are needed to improve the business environment through legal and regulatory reforms, better access to finance, and targetted trade and investment promotion and facilitation. Risks to the economic outlook come from thin external and fiscal buffers, ethnic and sectarian tensions, the capacity of the new government to maintain reform momentum, and vulnerability to bad weather. El Niño is expected to bring drought to the dry zone in central Myanmar and unseasonable rainstorms to lower Myanmar. Incoming policy makers have promised to redouble efforts to improve economic and social data, which is badly needed to inform policy formulation and planning. [i]

[UPDATED 04 October 16. Indicative measures based on open source information for the purpose of debate on security]

[1] Projections are positive indicators that if achieved could lead to enhanced effectiveness and stability in key vectors such as politics, governance and so on. These are prescriptive based on information from primary sources and analysis of open sources. Trends indicate possibility or otherwise of projections identified as positive, negative or uncertain and are indicated against each vector. Sources based on which trends have been assessed are included in detailed assessments provided to subscribers. FOR DETAILED ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE TRENDS SUBSCRIBE TO MYANMAR, DAILY WEEKLY OR MONTHLY BRIEFS. EMAIL officemail@security-risks.com.

[i] Asian development outlook 2016. Asia’s potential growth. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2016. Pages 217-219. 



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