20 January 2015

Redefining national security in complex new world

Lt Gen SS Mehta (retd)
Jan 20 2015 

In his avatar as a futurologist, Henry Kissinger in his thought-provoking book “World Order” draws a few conclusions relevant to India’s national security situation. Firstly, Kissinger notes that the world is spinning out of control with no designated caretaker. Secondly, he predicts that India will be the fulcrum of the 21st century world order because of its cultural cohesiveness. Thirdly, he notes with his patented asperity that foreign policy cannot be held hostage to domestic policies. Lastly, he notes the dichotomy that while economic structures are rapidly globalising, political structures remain enslaved to the Westphalian nation-state construct which is becoming increasingly irrelevant.

An explanation is warranted here. The Westphalia Treaty came about in 1648 after incessant war drove the degutted participating states to sign up for what was formalised as ‘peace by exhaustion’. It also led to the creation of a politico-strategic structure identified as the nation-state. Over 350 years later, the global knowledge explosion underscored by the ubiquitous, all-pervasive social media and IT-driven technology platforms providing instant, affordable communications and convergence has raised serious questions about the continued relevance of the Westphalian model. 

Upgrading Westphalian model 

Alvin Toffler got this phenomenon right in his “Third Wave” analogy of the 1980s when he listed the everywhere (globalisation), nowhere (cyberspace), and out there (outer space) paradigm as the greatest turning point of the modern era. Driven by ‘techno-rebels’, this Third Wave has given a new meaning to national security by underscoring the increasing ease and anonymity of asymmetric threats to it by state and non-state actors and the resultant challenges now faced by the citizen. Thus, it is fair to say that national security will increasingly signify the security of the nation and its citizenry.

This emerging space-cyberspace-instant communication continuum has totally diluted the historic idea of nation-states with national boundaries. Under the new dispensation, the ‘thing’ to be protected more than national borders is the individual of that country. Failure to undergo this transformation will render the idea of national security irrelevant if it isn’t configured as ‘all-embracing’. Thus, unless every citizen across gender, age, profession and religious persuasion feels to be an intrinsic part of the security ‘idea’ of that nation, part of its national security spectrum, the concept will become unstuck.

Thus far, national security always meant two things: Scanning the security environment for likely threats and placing the military hardware needed to counter the perceived security threads. The soft side was either ignored, or glossed over as a sufficiently essential component of national security. Wisdom has now dawned that national security is actually the sum total of national defence, economic security and human security. All three add up to lend new meaning and substance to what comprises national security.

As far as economic security is concerned, former Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Dr Subir Gokarn pointed out that the Indian economy has displayed an inability to sustain high growth rates for long periods of time partly because it failed to deal with structural barriers on time. Left unattended, these barriers will emerge as serious existential threats to national security. 

While national defence is well understood, the mediums of conflict have enhanced. Besides the traditional dimensions of land, water, underwater and air, we now have space and cyberspace. While earlier threats were stand-alone, cyberspace has now networked all threats, adding exponential value to each. This has forced us to understand and use cyberspace for national security.

In the domain of human security, India faces six threats: Water, energy, health, education not resulting in employment, environment and technology. This combination of traditional and non-traditional threats coupled with the availability of affordable and enhanced mediums of anonymous asymmetric capabilities has complicated the security scenario. To deal with this synergistically, there is a need to design a unique architecture which concentrates on policy direction and monitors implementation.

New security architecture 
On the architecture of the National Security Commission, we would be well advised not to go by the name. Whether it is the National Security Council, National Development Council or known by another name, it should have expertise to devise and articulate policy to suit the changed conditions and emerging challenges. Policy when clearly enunciated will provide the basis of a National Security Doctrine which, due to the rapidly changing environment, will always remain a work in progress. However, it will be the quality of available expertise and the design of the scaffolding, besides the wisdom to ‘add on’ or delete ‘redundancies’, that will remain critical.
While placing due emphasis on the contribution of citizens to be partners in national security, it is axiomatic that we make policies that enable India to transit from a ‘labour arbitrage economy’ to a ‘knowledge arbitrage economy’. If we do not make this transition, we will remain the patronisingly labelled low-end labour force of the world: A condition which emphasises the insecurity and low self-esteem of citizens. Whether we upgrade ‘skilling’ using the ‘Make-in-India’ or ‘Made-for-India’ pathways or both, we will have to make this transition speedily empowered by well thought-out policies. 

On the nuclear front, we are still using the grammar and lexicon of the Cold War. We have to devise our own grammar and lexicon. For instance, I am not convinced why we are not in a position to say that ‘threat of use is first use’. Sure, this usage is debate-worthy because it has complex dimensions, but is still the operating part of the new lexicon we should be using. 

In the emerging understanding of statecraft, even seasoned campaigners like Kissinger have begun to see the wisdom of Kautilya’s “Arthashastra” formulations. He opines that the treatise represents practical statecraft, not philosophical constructs. Maybe it is time for us to reinterpret Kautilya’s teachings.

Media and perception management
Finally, a word on the media — a key component of the national security architecture. While it has instant, mind-boggling information available to it, such access erodes perspectives and rapidly generates flawed perceptions. Often, and this happens cyclically on the TV media, while perception is at the goalpost, truth is still putting on its socks. That is where the print media remains compellingly relevant. This is because print provides a balanced perspective. Readers begin to understand the context of an occurrence that often results in a change of perceptions. However, the IT explosion has compressed time because even as the old story is being deciphered, another story or group of stories is breaking out. This reduces the importance of perception, leaving one notable causality: The truth. 

The printed word, however, has the advantage of ease of access and archival recall. It isn’t a blip that comes and goes and will always be relevant. There is much more that goes into news gathering and its analysis and sifting of wheat from the chaff. The relevance of the print media cannot, therefore, be trivialised. 

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