27 November 2014

THAT’S NO MOON! DID RUSSIA JUST DEPLOY AN EXPERIMENTAL KILLER SATELLITE?

November 24, 2014 

That’s No Moon! Did Russia Just Deploy An Experimental Killer Satellite?

Tyler Rogoway, writing on the blog, FoxTrot Alpha, begins by noting that “Russia launched the Kosmos 2499 rocket mission back in May as part of what seemed like just another mission to further develop its constellations of ‘Rodnik’ communications satellites.. Usually, three satellites are released during these missions,” Mr. Rogoway wrote, — but, this one had a fourth object.”

Initially, at least, “the U.S. thought that this strange radar return was just debris; but, not so much anymore,” Mr. Rogoway asserts. According to the BBC. “Russia told the U.N. that the piece of debris in question was actually a fourth satellite, which itself is nothing too odd, as the U.S. launches classified payloads all the time. Additionally, Russia has been all about surprises lately, so it was seen as just another question thrown on top of a pile of questions. But, then satellite observers saw the satellite/craft, changing its orbit in ways that are far from normal — for even spy satellites that usually do anything they can to conserve their finite fuel.”

“On November 9th, this small satellite’s odd maneuvers came to a head when it actually approached a piece of rocket that sent it into space six months earlier, maneuvering within just meters of it,’ Mr. Rogoway added.

“Could this be Russia’s answer to technologies that are clearly being developed by the U.S. on multiple levels, including one of the potential missions for the USAF’s shadowy pint-sized space plane — the X-37B?, Mr. Rogoway asks.

“Unofficially termed ‘inspector satellites,’ these are basically maneuverable space vehicles that can approach other satellites for both passive, and potentially active purposes. On the passive side of things,’ Mr. Rogoway notes, “these space drones of sorts can observe the design of a satellite — taking photos and laser measurements of it; and in some cases, they can even listen to the targeted satellite’s transmissions.”

“On the active side of things,” Mr. Rogoway writes, “this capability could be used to refuel, or even repair other satellites in orbit. Then,” he adds, “there are darker sides of the ‘active’ mission,’ with the potential of possibly blinding, jamming, or even kinetically destroying enemy satellites during a time of hostilities.”

“Whatever it is, [Object 2014-28E] looks experimental,” said Patricia Lewis, Research Director at the think-tank Chatham House, and an expert in space security. “It could have a number of functions, some civilian and some military – one possibility is for some kind of grabber bar. Another would be kinetic pellets which shoot out at another satellite. Or possibility there could be a satellite-to-satellite cyber attack or jamming.”

“The experiment was linked to the possible use of a remote capture arm and close proximity operations,” said Max White, a member of the Kettering group of astronomers, which made a name for itself in the 1960s by pinpointing the location of Soviet spy satellite launches. “Both can have peaceful as well as military nuances, with the former for refueling in space, and the latter for disabling an active payload belonging to a foreign nation, potentially without causing a debris cloud.

“Whether the Russians feel they need to demonstrate such capability is a matter for debate,” Mr White added. He too has been following the activities of object 2014-28E.

“The idea of one satellite manipulating, or ‘shooting down’ another is nothing new, with the Soviets designing cannons into their Salyut 3 and Almaz orbital platforms during the Cold War, we are finally; and, quietly facing the stark possibilities of this whole new dimension of warfare — in which extra-atmospheric drones can potentially take an enemy’s most sensitive eyes and ears, as well as their most advanced form of communications away, seemingly without warning.”

“Russia is not alone when it comes to foreign powers that appear to be wading into this new dimension of warfare,” Mr. Rogoway argues, “with China being rumored to also be testing manipulation, ‘rendezvous’ and dynamic maneuvering satellite capabilities that clearly have ‘dual-use’ potential.”

“Beyond the question mark that is the X-37B program, DARPA has had some eyebrow raising initiatives recently that could clearly be ‘soft’ covers for programs aimed at orbital dominance. The Phoenix Program in particular — is of great interest,’ Mr. Rogoway argues. “Under this program, a ‘tender vehicle’ with arm-like appendages that can dynamically maneuver in orbit, capture derelict space junk, such as old satellites, with communications dishes. It would then attach a small ‘satlet’ to that abandoned piece of hardware that would provide power; and, the brains for the re-purposed said space junk.”

“In effect, this would save money,” Mr. Rogoway asserts, “as you could launch a tender vehicle with dozens of satlets for the cost of a single, new-build communications, or listening satellite or two. This all sounds nice, but clearly Phoenix has as many offensive implications as it does economical ones. That same tender vehicle loaded with satlets could also potentially have its way with enemy spy; and, communications satellites, attacking themselves in an attempt to tap into the enemy’s orbital hardware, or lay waiting for the right time to strike.”

“If successful,” Mr. Rogoway argues, “such ‘parasitic’ systems could take enemy satellites offline at just the right time, or even de-orbiting them at will. This would solve the bane of ‘kinetic,’ anti-satellite weaponry, such as missiles, as pulverizing something in low earth orbit just makes thousands of pieces of ‘space junk’ that can threaten friendly, and unfriendly orbital systems alike.”

“Finally,” Mr. Rogoway says, “as systems like the one described in the Phoenix Project, or another similar project, could not only disable an enemy satellite, but it could potentially commandeer it, re-purposing it against its will. This satlet deploying mission seems almost perfectly suited for the X-37Bm, with its pickup truck-sized payload bay and reusability. Even disabling, capturing, or returning to earth a small enemy satellite from orbit is really not out of the question, especially if future derivatives of the X-37B are built, ones that are larger in size, with more payload capability.”

“The fact of the matter is,” Mr. Rogoway writes, “that just as we have seen rapid developments in unmanned aircraft, and submersible technology here on earth, low earth orbit is beginning to see similar technological effects. Just like cyber warfare, the ability to survey, intercept, jam, incapacitate, or even commandeer enemy satellites, represents another combat ‘dimension’ of the future. As the technology proliferates, it will come down to measures and countermeasures as far as whose orbital sensors will be most vulnerable from orbital attack — and, whose will not.”

“Currently, the U.S. is in very good place technologically…where it can dominate this looming future battlefield. When it comes to recent Russian and Chinese efforts. coming within observation range of another orbiting object, and even maneuvering around it, is not the same as manipulating it. Additionally, America has substantial tracking capabilities for objects in orbit and infrared and radar systems currently used for missile approach warning systems today could potentially manipulated and deployed on key military satellites for defense and warning purposes. Additionally, our space-based manipulation capabilities are second to none, and the X-37B, or a derivative of it, may be the perfect vehicle to facilitate such a technology in the future. Yet, all these technological and strategic advantages erode quickly without continued/sustained investment,” Mr. Rogoway concluded.

“When it comes to DoD, there are a lot of rabidly competing budgetary priorities out there right now. Yet, imagining the U.S. military operating during combat at even close to its potential — without the virtual armada of satellites it currently depends on — is not a pretty thought. Which makes such an ‘asymmetric’ capability an absolute dream for our enemies; and, potential enemies alike,” he warns.

“This is the second time a Russian piece of orbital junk has suddenly started to do maneuvers,” according to the blog beta.slashdot. “The first time, in early 2014, the Russians finally admitted five months after launch that the “junk” was actually a satellite. In both cases, the Russians have not told anyone what these satellites are designed to do, though based on the second satellite’s maneuvers as well as its small size (about a foot in diameter) it is likely they are testing new cubesat capabilities, as most cubesats do not have the ability to do these kinds of orbital maneuvers. Once you have that capability, you can then apply it to cubesats with any kind of purpose, from military anti-satellite technology to commercial applications.”

Putin’s aggression in the Crimea and Ukraine, its activities in the cyber realm, and now this are all indications that reflect Putin’s disdain for POTUS Obama; and, Putin’s belief that the U.S. — under Obama’s stewardship — will do little to nothing about it. V/R, RCP

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