October 9, 2013 by Team SAISA
Filed under Analysis
Terrain view of forested high altitude area of operations at 12000 feet
Last fortnight has been trying for the Indian Security forces which saw an upsurge of violent militant activity in J&K. In our analysis based on our visits to Kashmir we had opined that as a run up to 2014, violence in J&K would pick up if Pakistan wished to keep the issue alive. They obliged.
While routine BAT actions at LC were anticipated before the closure of passes, the Keran bid of enmass infiltration supported and orchestrated by the Jihadi Military Complex (JMC), displayed a heightened sense of despondency and desperation on part of Pakistan – one to derail the Man Mohan – Sharif talks in Washington and second to remind the Indian establishment that despite Af Pak and al Mizan, Kashmir was central to Pakistan’s terror plot.
What did Pakistan hope to achieve by infiltrating such mass numbers in a strategically insignificant area unlike Kargil?
Their aim was not so much as to infiltrate as to engage the Indian army in a sustained operation but to draw global attention in support of their claims to Kashmir when Nawaz Sharif was scheduled to open talks with PM Man Mohan Singh. Well it was always known that as Nawaz Sharif, battling JMC pressure at home, builds atmospherics for peace, violence in Kashmir will pick up. We had articulated that here.
However, it must be understood that this action by the Pakistan military is a perfect example of their bravado by conflict initiation with terrible conflict termination strategy something apparently they take pride in. Karen is no strategic game unlike Kargil where Pakistan could severe the Leh highway. Here they are at the mercy of Indian Army with their only road passing through the Neelam Valley, sand witched between Gurais and the Kishan Ganga river, which can be interdicted at will. As the ceasefire had been convincingly violated, India could have upped the ante here. Had India decides to go beyond the LC the Neelam/Kishanganga Valley to the East, bordering Gurez, would have been completely cut off.
The army briefings by Lt Gen Gurmit Singh rubbished Mukul Deva style military fiction stories built around the infiltration attempts. The term “occupation of the ghost village of Shala Bhata”, the way it was put across by section of media does conjure pictures of Kargil to the uninitiated. However, it takes a lifetime to understand the social dynamics of operating in a highly intense battle of nerves against a determined enemy on this perennial battlefield. Such ghost villages exist at various places along the LC and BAT occupation during a bid to infiltrate terrorists does not amount to Kargil type operation.
Slain militants on the LC Fence
Pakistani identity card of the slain militant exposes Pakistan’s complicity