19 December 2012

The Geopolitics of Shale

December 19, 2012 | 1 
Stratfor 

By Robert D. Kaplan

According to the elite newspapers and journals of opinion, the future of foreign affairs mainly rests on ideas: the moral impetus for humanitarian intervention, the various theories governing exchange rates and debt rebalancing necessary to fix Europe, the rise of cosmopolitanism alongside the stubborn vibrancy of nationalism in East Asia and so on. In other words, the world of the future can be engineered and defined based on doctoral theses. And to a certain extent this may be true. As the 20th century showed us, ideologies -- whether communism, fascism or humanism -- matter and matter greatly. 

But there is another truth: The reality of large, impersonal forces like geography and the environment that also help to determine the future of human events. Africa has historically been poor largely because of few good natural harbors and few navigable rivers from the interior to the coast. Russia is paranoid because its land mass is exposed to invasion with few natural barriers. The Persian Gulf sheikhdoms are fabulously wealthy not because of ideas but because of large energy deposits underground. You get the point. Intellectuals concentrate on what they can change, but we are helpless to change much of what happens. 

Enter shale, a sedimentary rock within which natural gas can be trapped. Shale gas constitutes a new source of extractable energy for the post-industrial world. Countries that have considerable shale deposits will be better placed in the 21st century competition between states, and those without such deposits will be worse off. Ideas will matter little in this regard. 

Pretending “Soldiers”

Issue Vol. 27.4 Oct-Dec 2012 | Date : 19 Dec , 2012 

Playing a ‘soldier’ has always been a very enticing engagement amongst children. Even grown-ups of prominent status like the tag of being a ‘military- man’, as evidenced by their urge to be conferred with honourary or colloquial ranks, secure membership of military clubs, donning military outfits or getting photographed with soldiers. Indeed, these are but harmless manifestations of a latent instinct for adventure and bravado amongst the well-meaning. In fact, they go to uphold the glamour of military service. Soldiers appreciate that. Of late, however, understanding of the ‘soldiery’ seems to have been somewhat warped by misplaced enthusiasm. 

“The significant characteristics of the relationship between the armed forces and society is ‘difference’, not comparability” —Huntington. 

Whither Soldiers? 

Playing a ‘soldier’ has always been a very enticing engagement amongst children. Even grown-ups of prominent status like the tag of being a ‘military- man’, as evidenced by their urge to be conferred with honorary or colloquial ranks, secure membership of military clubs, donning military outfits or getting photographed with soldiers. Indeed, these are but harmless manifestations of a latent instinct for adventure and bravado amongst the well-meaning. 

A better understanding of military ethos would allow the State to rescue itself from the disgrace of watching its soldiers returning their war-medals… 

US Immunity to ISI in 26/11 a Deep Concern: India

New Delhi | Dec 19, 2012

Expressing "serious disappointment" over the US submission that Pakistan's intelligence agency ISI be accorded "immunity" in the case related to 26/11 filed by the relatives of victims of Mumbai terror attack, India today said it was a "matter of deep and abiding concern."

India, which raised its concerns on Monday with the US State Department after being informed of the US' view, also asserted that it cannot be that any organisation, State or non-State that sponsors terrorism enjoys immunity.

Reacting to the US decision, official spokesperson in the Ministry of External Affairs said, "We have noted that the US Department of State has taken the position in a US Court that the Pakistani ISI be accorded immunity from the civil suit on the Mumbai terrorist attack of November 26, 2008.

"For India, it remains of vital importance that justice is done and that those who organised and perpetrated this horrible crime be brought to justice, irrespective of the jurisdiction under which they may reside or be operating. It cannot be that any organisation, State or non-State, that sponsors terrorism enjoys immunity.

"Our position has been made known to the United States consistently .

"India is not a party to the civil suit filed in the Eastern District Court of New York. The details of what was conveyed to the Court by a sovereign Government are a matter for that Government to explain.

"From our perspective, this decision is a matter of deep and abiding concern. The leadership of the US has publicly stated its commitment to counter terrorism, to dismantle terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and to bring those responsible for the Mumbai terror attacks to justice. In this context the decision of the US authorities in this case is a cause of serious disappointment."

The US authorities have submitted before Eastern District New York court that Pakistan's ISI and its former chiefs Ahmed Shuja Pasha and Nadeem Taj "enjoy immunity" in a case related to the 26/11 attacks filed by American survivors and relatives of victims of the Mumbai terror strikes.

"In the view of the United States, the ISI is entitled to immunity because it is part of a foreign state within the meaning of the FSIA (Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act)," it submitted.

Ballistic Missile Proliferation: Implications for India

IDSA COMMENT 

December 19, 2012 

In the face of international opposition, North Korea launched a rocket on 12 December 2012 to place a satellite in orbit.1 Its earlier four attempts had all failed; the first of these was in 1998 and the most recent failure was in April 2012.2 The “successful” launch on 12 December 2012 places North Korea among the few nations (United States, Russia, China, Japan, Europe, India, Pakistan and possibly Iran) that possess the ability to build long range ballistic missiles. What has added to international concerns about North Korea’s missile programme is its transfer of missiles banned by multilateral treaties and conventions to countries such as Pakistan and Iran as well as its support for international terrorist groups.3

India has no direct dispute with North Korea and the distance separating the two countries serves to further reduce threat perceptions. India’s interest in North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes comes from the reported clandestine co-operation between North Korea, Pakistan and Iran in this regard. There have been persistent reports that North Korea has assisted Pakistan’s missile programme in return for Pakistani assistance with its nuclear weaponisation programme. The current Pakistani ballistic missile capability extends to a reported range capability of about 1500 to 2500 km, which is equivalent to that of the North Korean Taepodong-I missile and its further developments. The test conducted on 12 December 2012 by the Unha-3 rocket gives North Korea a range capability of 5500+km or the equivalent of the Taepodong-II missile.4 India’s Agni-V missile was claimed to have a range of 5500 km and falling into the classification of an ICBM. This is a range capability not currently possessed by Pakistan and one, if inducted by Pakistan from North Korea, would be detrimental for Indian security. Iran has also been suspected of being a recipient of North Korean ballistic missile technology.5 Iran’s acquisition of long range ballistic missile capability from North Korea would further complicate India’s security situation. Beyond this direct impact of North Korean missile proliferation, India, as a responsible member of the international community, has no choice but to support international action and restrictions on countries that act and behave in a manner that is found unacceptable by the rest of the world. 

Understanding India’s Interest in the South China Sea: Getting into the Seaweeds




Dec 18, 2012 

The Indian Navy chief, Admiral D.K. Joshi, has staked India’s claims in the waters of the South China Sea much more powerfully than the government by recently suggesting that with the security of the nation’s economic assets at stake in South China Sea, “we [the Indian Navy] will be required to be there and we are prepared for that.” He made it clear that the Indian Navy had been exercising for such an eventuality even though governmental approval would be needed if the navy is to provide protection to India’s economic assets in the South China Sea. 

This elicited a predictably hard reaction from Beijing with China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Hong Lei responding that India should respect its sovereignty and halt its oil and gas exploration. Lei underlined that “China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands and their adjacent waters” and that it “opposes unilateral exploration and development of oil and gas in contested waters of the South China Sea.” This exchange comes at a time when China is escalating tensions in the region with its decision to empower the police in the Hainan province to board foreign ships and seize vessels in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. The rules will come into effect January 1, and the police will be able to take necessary measures to stop ships or “to force them into changing or reversing course.” It is in Hainan province that India’s ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) has been given the oil block number 128 by Vietnam for joint exploration. 

The conflict between India and China over the South China Sea has been building up for more than a year now. India signed an agreement with Vietnam in October 2011 to expand and promote oil exploration in the South China Sea and then reconfirmed its decision to carry on despite the Chinese challenge to the legality of Indian presence. 

100 Most Influential People




The U. S. defense community encompasses the best America has to offer: leadership, innovation, technology and vision. It’s a combination that has helped ensure the U.S. has fielded the best-trained, best-equipped military force in the world for nearly a century.

But the U.S. military does not exist in a vacuum. The world’s most powerful military operates under the civilian control of the president and his appointees and is funded through Congress; its size, shape and employment are determined by many influencers, both civilian and military. Some are elected; most are not. Some move in and out of government, alternating between stints in industry and think tanks, and others wield influence less visibly, sharing experience and wisdom behind closed doors.

This inaugural 100 Most Influential People in U.S. Defense list was compiled over five months by more than two dozen reporters and editors representing the world’s biggest military newsroom and the award-winning staffs of Gannett Government Media’s sector-leading publications: Defense News, Army Times, Air Force Times, Navy Times, Marine Corps Times, Armed Forces Journal and Federal Times. 

100 Most Influential People List



Rank   Name Title Category
1 Thomas Donilon Thomas Donilon National Security Adviser Policy Intelligence War Homeland Security Top10
2 Leon Panetta Leon Panetta Secretary of Defense Money Policy Intelligence War Homeland Security Top10
3 Hillary Clinton Hillary Clinton Secretary of State Policy War Intelligence Opinion shapers Top10
4 John Brennan John Brennan Deputy national security adviser for Homeland Security and counterterrorism Policy Homeland Security War Intelligence Top10
5 Mike Vickers Mike Vickers Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence Policy Special Ops Intelligence War Top10
6 William McRavenNavy Adm. William McRaven Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command Special Ops War Policy Navy Uniformed Services Top10
7 Martin DempseyArmy Gen. Martin Dempsey Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Policy War Money Homeland Security Top10 Uniformed Services
8 Ashton Carter Ashton Carter Deputy Secretary of Defense Policy Top10 War Industry
9 Joseph DunfordMarine Gen. Joseph Dunford Outgoing assistant Marine Corps commandant; incoming commander, International Security Assistance Force Marines Policy Money War Uniformed Services Top10
10 Andrew Marshall Andrew Marshall Director of the Office of Net Assessment Policy Top10 Homeland Security Intelligence Opinion shapers
11 Joint Chiefs of Staff Joint Chiefs of Staff
Policy War Army Navy Air Force Marines
12 Bob Hale Bob Hale Pentagon comptroller Money War Policy
13 The Congressional Gang of Eight The Congressional Gang of Eight
Money Policy War Congress
14 Steve Kosiak Steve Kosiak Associate director, Office of Management and Budget War Money Policy
15 Mike RogersRep. Mike Rogers Chairman, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Congress Intelligence War Policy Money
16 John KerrySen. John Kerry Chairman, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Congress Policy Opinion shapers
17 Mike FlynnArmy Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn Director, Defense Intelligence Agency Intelligence War Special Ops Money Policy Uniformed Services
18 Samuel LocklearNavy Adm. Samuel Locklear Commander, U.S. Pacific Command War Policy Money Navy Cyber
19 Keith AlexanderArmy Gen. Keith Alexander Director, National Security Agency; chief, Central Security Service; commander, U.S. Cyber Command, Industry Policy Cyber Army Uniformed Services
20 James Clapper James Clapper Director of National Intelligence Intelligence Policy Money
21 The New Three Amigos The New Three Amigos
Congress Money Policy
22 James MattisMarine Gen. James Mattis Commander, U.S. Central Command War Policy Marines Money Uniformed Services
23 Kurt Campbell Kurt Campbell Assistant Secretary of State, East Asian and Pacific affairs Policy Pacific
24 Mark Lippert Mark Lippert Assistant Secretary of Defense Asian and Pacific Security Affairs Pacific Policy
25 Susan Rice Susan Rice U.S. ambassador to the U.N.; potential national security adviser pick Policy
26 Bob Simmons Bob Simmons Staff director, House Armed Services Committee Congress Money Policy
27 Doug Bush Doug Bush Minority staff member, House Armed Services Committee Congress Money Policy
28 Richard DeBobes Richard DeBobes Staff director, Senate Armed Services Committee Congress Money Policy
29 Joe WilsonRep. Joe Wilson Chairman, House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee Congress Money War
30 Frank Kendall Frank Kendall Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Policy Money Industry
31 Congress' Naval Analysts Congress' Naval Analysts
Congress Opinion shapers Money Navy
32 Randy ForbesRep. Randy Forbes House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee Congress Money Veterans Navy
33 The Wise Men & a Lady The Wise Men & a Lady
Policy Opinion shapers Money
34 John AllenMarine Corps Gen. John Allen ISAF commander Marines War Money Uniformed Services
35 Robert Work Robert Work Undersecretary of the Navy Navy Policy Money
36 Sean Stackley Sean Stackley Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research and Development Policy Navy Policy Money
37 Brett Lambert Brett Lambert Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Policy Policy Industry Money
38 Mike MullenNavy Adm. (ret.) Mike Mullen Former chairman of the Joint Chiefs Opinion shapers Navy Policy
39 James CartwrightMarine Gen. (ret.) James Cartwright Former vice chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Opinion shapers Policy Marines Cyber
40 Daniel BolgerArmy Lt. Gen. Daniel Bolger Commander, NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan and Combined Security Transition Command War Army Policy Uniformed Services
41 Andrew Krepinevich Andrew Krepinevich President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments Opinion shapers Policy
42 Chuck HagelFormer Sen. Chuck Hagel Atlantic Council chairman Opinion shapers Policy Veterans
43 John Hamre John Hamre President, Center for Strategic and International Studies Opinion shapers Policy
44 Richard Danzig Richard Danzig Chairman, Center for a New American Security Opinion shapers Policy
45 Rudy deLeon Rudy deLeon Senior vice president, national security and international policy, Center forAmerican Progress Opinion shapers Policy
46 Robert PappCoast Guard Adm. Robert Papp Commandant, U.S. Coast Guard Homeland Security Money Coast Guard
47 Lloyd AustinArmy Gen. Lloyd Austin Army vice chief of staff; slated to become CENTCOM commander Army Money Policy War Uniformed Services
48 Christopher BogdanAir Force Lt. Gen. Christopher Bogdan Program executive officer, for the F-35 Lightning II Joint Program Office Air Force Industry Marines Navy Uniformed Services
49 Charles JacobyArmy Gen. Charles Jacoby Commander, U.S. Northern Command Homeland Security Army Money Uniformed Services
50 John KellyMarine Gen. John Kelly Commander, U.S. Southern Command Homeland Security Marines Money Navy Uniformed Services
51 Jim McNerney Jim McNerney Chairman and CEO, Boeing Industry Policy Money Opinion shapers
52 Robert LennoxArmy Lt. Gen. Robert Lennox Principal deputy director of CAPE, the Pentagon’s cost assessment and program evaluation office Money Army Policy
53 Jeff MillerRep. Jeff Miller Chairman, House Veterans Affairs Committee Congress Veterans Policy
54 Sergeant Major of the Army Raymond Chandler Sergeant Major of the Army Raymond ChandlerSergeant Major of the U.S. Army Army Policy War Uniformed Services
55 Patty MurraySen. Patty Murray Chairwoman, Senate Veterans Affairs Committee Veterans Congress Money Policy
56 Bill Swanson Bill Swanson Chairman and CEO, Raytheon Industry Opinion shapers Policy Money
57 Arnold Punaro Arnold Punaro CEO of Punaro Group, member of Defense Business Board Industry Opinion shapers Policy Money
58 William Cohen William Cohen Former defense secretary and senator Congress
59 Mike Bayer Mike Bayer Former chairman, Defense Business Board Opinion shapers Industry Money
60 Bradley ManningArmy Pfc. Bradley Manning Charged with leaking classified material to WikiLeaks Intelligence Opinion shapers Policy
61 Elon Musk Elon Musk Founder and CEO of SpaceX Opinion shapers Policy
62 Michael HaydenAir Force Gen. (ret.) Michael Hayden Former CIA director Opinion shapers Cyber Intelligence
63 Marion Blakey Marion Blakey President, AIA; Stan Soloway, Professional Services Council Industry Opinion shapers Policy
64 Sean O'Keefe Sean O'Keefe Chairman and CEO, of EADS North America Industry Opinion shapers Policy Money
65 Pierre Chao Pierre Chao Renaissance Strategic Advisors Industry
66 HR McMasterArmy Maj. Gen. HR McMaster Commander, Maneuver Center of Excellence at Fort Benning Opinion shapers Army Policy War Uniformed Services
67 Marillyn Hewson Marillyn Hewson President and COO, Lockheed Air Force Industry Money
68 Air-Sea Battle strategy architects Air-Sea Battle strategy architects
Industry Policy Pacific Navy Air Force War
69 John Goodman John Goodman COO, Accenture Federal Services, chairman, Defense Business Board Industry Opinion shapers Money
70 Michèle Flournoy Michèle Flournoy Co-founder, Center for New American Security Opinion shapers Policy War
71 Gordon SullivanArmy Gen. (ret.) Gordon Sullivan President, Association of the United States Army; former Army chief of staff Industry Opinion shapers
72 Wes Bush Wes Bush CEO, Northrop Grumman Opinion shapers Money Policy Industry
73 Industry Gray Beards Industry Gray Beards
Army Veterans Policy
74 Dov and Roger Zakheim Dov and Roger Zakheim Defense advisers Opinion shapers Congress Policy
75 Gordon Adams Gordon Adams Defense analyst Industry Opinion shapers Policy
76 Wall Street Money Men Wall Street Money Men
Industry Opinion shapers Money
77 Todd Harrison Todd Harrison Budget expert, CSBA Money Opinion shapers
78 David Berteau David Berteau Director, international security program, CSIS Opinion shapers Industry
79 Eliot Cohen Eliot Cohen Director, Strategic Studies Program, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies Opinion shapers Industry
80 Loren Thompson Loren Thompson CEO, Lexington Institute Opinion shapers Industry
81 C Robert KehlerAir Force Gen. C Robert Kehler Commander, U.S. Strategic Command Opinion shapers Policy Congress Uniformed Services Air Force
82 Chris Preble Chris Preble Vice president defense and foreign policy studies, Cato Institute Opinion shapers Money
83 Pete NewellArmy Col. Pete Newell Director, Rapid Equipping Force Opinion shapers Money Army War Uniformed Services
84 William FraserAir Force Gen. William Fraser Commander, U.S. Transportation Command Air Force Pacific Money War
85 Peter ChiarelliRetired Army Gen. (ret.) Peter Chiarelli Former Vice Chief of Staff War Army Veterans
86 Paul Rieckhoff Paul Rieckhoff CEO and founder, Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America Opinion shapers Veterans Money
87 Steve Strobridge Steve Strobridge Director of government relations, Military Officers Association of America Opinion shapers Veterans
88 Frank Hoffman Frank Hoffman Research expert, National Defense University Opinion shapers Policy
89 David RodriguezArmy Gen. David Rodriguez Commander, U.S. Army Forces Command, nominated to head U.S. Africa Command Army Opinion shapers War Uniformed Services
90 Linda Hudson Linda Hudson CEO, BAE North America Industry Money
91 James StavridisNavy Adm. James Stavridis Commander, U.S. European Command; NATO supreme allied commander in Europe Policy Money Navy Uniformed Services
92 Peter Singer Peter Singer Senior fellow, Brookings Institution Industry Opinion shapers
93 Phebe Novakovic Phebe Novakovic President & COO, General Dynamics Intelligence Opinion shapers Cyber
94 Tom Captain Tom Captain Vice chairman, Aerospace & Defense Leader for Deloitte Industry
95 Mikey Weinstein Mikey Weinstein Founder of Military Religious Freedom Foundation Opinion shapers
96 Barry Blechman Barry Blechman Co-founder of the Stimson Center Opinion shapers Policy
97 Larry Korb Larry Korb Senior, fellow Center for American Progress Opinion shapers Policy
98 Mackenzie Eaglen Mackenzie Eaglen Scholar, American Enterprise Institute Opinion shapers Policy
99 Dawn Halfaker Dawn Halfaker President, Wounded Warrior Project Veterans
100 David PetraeusArmy Gen. (ret.) David Petraeus Former CIA director and former ISAF commander Army Intelligence War Policy